Clothes are the gift people most want and most often return, and it is nearly always the size. There are better options than guessing.
Apparel is returned more than any other category online — commonly a fifth to two fifths of everything ordered — and roughly half of those returns come down to one thing: it did not fit. As a gift that is worse than a statistic. It is the present opened politely, taken back quietly, and never mentioned again.
You do not need to guess, and you do not need to ruin the surprise either.
The most reliable answer is hanging in their wardrobe. A care label carries the size in the system the maker used, and often the brand too — which matters, because the same person is different sizes at different brands. Photograph the label rather than trying to remember it; the print is small and the difference between an M and an S is one glance you will not get twice.
If the label is in another system, convert it before you shop — a shirt size chart or a shoe size chart turns it into whatever your shop speaks.
Asking "what size are you?" three weeks before a birthday is not subtle. Asking for all their sizes at a neutral moment, or having someone else ask, is. Better still, send a link that lets them fill in their sizes in a browser — they answer a form, you get the answer, and nobody has said the word "present". MeSize does exactly this: you send a size request, they type their sizes on a web page with no app and no account, and the answer comes back to you.
If you have your heart set on an unforgiving category, that is the moment to get the measurement rather than to hope.
Include the gift receipt, and check the return window before you buy in November for December. Many shops extend it over the holidays, and the ones that do not are the ones that turn a wrong size into a dead loss.
The genuinely annoying part of gift sizing is that you solve it every single year, from scratch. Once you know that your sister is a particular size at a particular brand, and your nephew is a particular height, that is worth writing down somewhere you will find it next December — a size you already know is the difference between five minutes and an evening.
MeSize
Stop looking this up. Save your sizes once — yours, your kids’, whoever you buy for — and carry every system in your pocket.